Transforma Insights forecasts SGP.32 will dominate remote SIM provisioning by 2035
Remote SIM Provisioning (RSP) is set to become a mainstream feature of cellular IoT over the next decade, with the latest research from Transforma Insights forecasting that standards-based RSP capability will be present in 57% of all cellular IoT device shipments by 2035. The analyst firm’s latest report also predicts that the GSMA’s SGP.32 ‘IoT’ standard will rapidly become the dominant approach, accounting for 53% of all cellular IoT shipments by the end of the forecast period.
The report, ‘Remote SIM provisioning forecast: SGP.32 will account for 53% of cellular shipments in 2035’, represents an update to the company’s previous outlook published in 2023. At that time, commercial deployment of SGP.32 was expected much earlier than ultimately proved to be the case. With fully standards-compliant solutions now entering the market during 2026, Transforma Insights has revisited its assumptions to provide an updated view of how the three GSMA remote SIM provisioning standards, SGP.02, SGP.22 and SGP.32, are likely to evolve.
According to the research, annual shipments of devices capable of supporting standards-based Remote SIM Provisioning will increase from 88 million in 2025 to 642 million in 2035. While standards-based RSP today is largely associated with connected vehicles using SGP.02, the market undergoes a significant transition during the forecast period. Overall, RSP capability increases from representing 19% of annual cellular IoT shipments in 2025 to 57% by 2035.
The analysis points to a clear shift in the relative importance of the three standards. SGP.02, originally developed for traditional machine-to-machine deployments, declines steadily as new deployments increasingly adopt SGP.32. Although SGP.02 shipments fall substantially over the period, the report notes that its installed base will remain significant for many years because of the long operational lives of connected vehicles and other deployed devices.
SGP.22, developed for consumer devices with user interfaces capable of supporting manual profile management, continues to expand gradually throughout the forecast period. However, its role remains relatively specialised, accounting for only 3% of cellular IoT shipments by 2035.
The overwhelming growth comes from SGP.32. Transforma Insights forecasts that annual shipments of SGP.32-capable devices will increase to almost 600 million units by 2035. The standard overtakes SGP.02 as the leading Remote SIM Provisioning approach in annual shipments during 2027 and becomes the majority of all cellular IoT shipments from 2034 onwards.
The forecasts are based on a detailed bottom-up methodology rather than broad market assumptions. Analysts assessed the likelihood of adoption across every relevant application within the Transforma Insights IoT Forecast Database, examining 164 different cellular IoT applications drawn from a total of 270 IoT use cases.
Rather than assuming universal adoption of SGP.32, the methodology evaluates the characteristics of each application individually. Factors considered include whether devices are deployed internationally, expected device lifetime, coverage requirements, data usage, power constraints, user interaction, and the radio technologies employed. These characteristics determine whether a particular application is likely to benefit sufficiently from Remote SIM Provisioning to justify its inclusion.
The research also identifies important differences between connectivity technologies. Adoption of SGP.32 is forecast to be highest among higher-bandwidth 5G deployments, while lower-bandwidth 5G mMTC technologies, including NB-IoT, are expected to adopt the standard at a slower pace. This reflects both technical considerations and the types of applications that typically use each connectivity technology.
Perhaps more significant from a commercial perspective is the relationship between Remote SIM Provisioning and service value. Although RSP capability is forecast to be present in 57% of shipments by 2035, those applications account for more than 70% of cellular IoT ‘Value Added Connectivity’ revenue. This reflects the tendency for higher-value IoT applications, including many enterprise and automotive deployments, to place greater value on flexible connectivity management throughout the lifetime of a device.
The ultimate conclusion of the report is that enterprise demand for SGP.32 has become increasingly clear, even if customers are sometimes uncertain about the precise capabilities they require. Enterprise customer demand levels are very high, even if there might be some vagueness about what specific capabilities they might want to use or role to perform. We have always maintained the view that SGP.32 is just a tool, albeit one that significantly helps streamline some aspects of the management of connectivity. But it is not a substitute for a well-rounded and effective connectivity proposition.
Beyond the forecasts themselves, the report concludes that SGP.32 will increasingly become a baseline capability within cellular IoT connectivity offerings rather than a differentiating feature. As adoption grows, competitive differentiation is likely to shift towards broader managed connectivity capabilities, including operational support, regulatory compliance, integration and customer service.
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